Overview
Eight numbers that describe the operating environment for Austin and San Antonio mechanical & sheet metal contractors right now.
Input-cost pressure vs. contractor selling prices
Steel & aluminum are running well ahead of what HVAC manufacturers pass through — margin squeeze indicator.
Austin vs. San Antonio permits
MSA-level residential building permits — the two demand engines side by side.
Input costs Sheet metal & HVAC materials
Section 232 tariff regimes have been the dominant input-cost story since 2018.
Steel & aluminum PPI
1982 = 100. Tariff windows marked with vertical rules.
Global commodity prices
Copper, aluminum, iron ore (indexed).
HVAC equipment PPI
What contractors pay for finished units.
Copper price — HVAC coil / refrigerant tubing
The single most sensitive input to HVAC unit cost.
Construction Housing & construction spend
Where the demand for sheet metal ductwork and HVAC installs originates.
MSA housing permits — Austin vs. San Antonio vs. Texas
Both metros indexed on same axis; Texas overall shown as dashed line for context.
US construction spending: residential vs. nonresidential
$ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
House price index — Austin vs. San Antonio
FHFA all-transactions HPI. Austin runs richer; San Antonio steadier.
US housing starts vs. permits
Thousands, SAAR.
Labor Workforce & wages
Specialty trade contractor employment (HVAC / sheet metal / plumbing) is the tightest available proxy for MCA-SMACNA member headcount.
Specialty trade contractors — Austin vs. San Antonio
Thousands. HVAC, sheet metal, plumbing, and other specialty trades. Austin is now ~1.4× San Antonio.
Texas construction employment
Statewide backdrop. Thousands, all workers.
US construction average hourly earnings
Production workers, nominal $. Sets the SMART Union bargaining baseline.
Unemployment rate — Austin, San Antonio, Texas
Percent. Austin runs consistently tighter than SA.
Macro Rates & inflation
Rates shape financing for new commercial builds and rate-sensitive residential demand.
Fed funds, 10Y treasury, 30Y mortgage
The rate stack driving construction financing.
CPI & industrial production
YoY %.
Impact model Sensitivity ranking
A stylized exposure model — how a 10% move in each indicator hits a typical MCA-SMACNA contractor's operating margin. Assumptions are documented; adjust weights below to match an Austin-tilted commercial firm or a San Antonio-tilted residential firm.
Margin sensitivity to a +10% shock in each indicator
Positive bars = margin compression. Default: 60% residential mix, 65% pass-through of material costs, 90-day price-locked backlog. Adjust sliders to test your firm.
Contractor profile weights
Adjust to match a specific firm profile.
Sources & methodology
Every series links to its FRED page. Data pulled —.
| Series | Description | Unit | Latest | YoY | Source |
|---|
Methodology notes
- Impact model. Each bar is
margin_change = 10% × input_share × (1 − pass_through)for cost items and10% × revenue_share × elasticityfor demand items. Elasticity assumptions: residential permits 0.55, nonresidential spend 0.35, 30-yr mortgage −0.25 per 100bp, Texas unemployment −0.4 (higher unemployment = lower residential replacement demand). - Tariff windows. Vertical rules mark the March 2018 Section 232 25% steel / 10% aluminum tariffs, the June 2018 extension to Canada/Mexico/EU, the May 2019 USMCA-related lift, the March 2025 25% reinstatement, and the June 2025 doubling to 50%.
- Specialty trade contractors. BLS series SMU48124202023800001 (Austin) and SMU48417002023800001 (San Antonio) capture specialty trade contractors in each MSA — the closest available proxy for MCA-SMACNA member headcount. They group HVAC/sheet metal with plumbers, electricians, and other specialty trades.
- Metro scope. MCA-SMACNA of Austin covers Central Texas (Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA, ~2.5M people). MCA-SMACNA of San Antonio covers South Texas (San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, ~2.7M people). Both are affiliated with SMACNA National and MCA Texas.
- Pass-through. The default 65% pass-through reflects industry surveys during the 2018–2019 tariff cycle where SMACNA members reported passing through roughly two-thirds of steel cost increases on new bids but far less on backlogged fixed-price jobs.